Update on programme and funding projections for 1998

EC/48/SC/CRP.11

UPDATE ON PROGRAMME AND FUNDING PROJECTIONS FOR 1998

I. INTRODUCTION

1. An update of UNHCR programme and funding projections for 1997 and 1998, as at 1 December 1997, was presented to the tenth meeting of the Standing Committee on 2 and 3 February 1998 (EC/48/SC/CRP.4). The present document provides further updated information on programme expenditure for 1997 (Part II) and a summary of programme and funding projections for 1998 (Part III).

II.1997 EXPENDITURE

2. As shown in Annex 1 to document EC/48/SC/CRP.20, funds available in 1997 under all sources of funds, including funds brought forward from 1996, totalled $ 1,114,917,601 (excluding the Working Capital and Guarantee Fund). Obligations entered into during 1997 totalled $ 974,281,884 ($ 385,064,973 for General Programmes and $ 589,216,911 for Special Programmes and accounts), leaving a total carry-over of $ 140,635,717 at year-end (not including the Working Capital and Guarantee Fund) to meet initial activities in 1998. The carry-over is composed of $ 2.5 million for General Programmes and $ 138.1 million for Special Programmes.

3. In document EC/48/SC/CRP.4, UNHCR anticipated that General Programmes expenditure for 1997 was likely to total some $ 390.9 million. As noted above, the final obligation level was $ 385.1 million, that is $ 5.8 million less than anticipated, mainly as a result of very careful monitoring of year-end obligations and cancellations of allocations from the Voluntary Repatriation Fund.

4. In regard to Special Programmes, UNHCR anticipated that expenditure for 1997 was likely to total some $ 577.9 million (EC/48/SC/CRP.4 refers). The final obligation level was $ 588.0 million (excluding the Medical Insurance Plan), with the difference of $ 10.1 million being the result of higher than anticipated expenditure, mainly in the Great Lakes region of Africa.

III. UPDATE OF 1998 PROGRAMME AND FUNDING PROJECTIONS

5. Annex I to this paper provides an update as of 15 March 1998 of total projected needs for activities programmed in 1998, and a forecast of expected income for the year, taking into account, inter alia, unobligated funds brought forward from 1997. It should be noted that the unobligated funds brought forward from 1997 as shown in Annex I ($ 129.7 million) relate only to programmed activities.

6. The closure of the accounts for 1997 showed some of the smallest carry-over figures, both in General Programmes and some Special Programmes, since 1989. These low levels of carry-overs are clearly hampering UNHCR's ability to implement programmes in the first quarter of 1998.

7. With regard to General Programmes, it will be recalled that the Executive Committee, at its forty-eighth session in October 1997, approved the 1998 General Programmes target of $ 440.0 million. This target includes:

a) the Emergency Fund ($ 25 million), against which allocations totalling $ 1.25 million had been made by 15 March, leaving an unallocated balance of $ 23.75 million (Annex 2 refers);

b) the Voluntary Repatriation Fund ($ 20 million), against which allocations totalling $ 11.5 million had been made by 15 March, leaving an unallocated balance of $ 8.5 million (Annex 2 also refers). Most of these allocations were made to fund ongoing repatriation programmes for which little or no carry-over was available at the beginning of 1998, and pending receipt of contributions subsequent to the launching of appeals; and

c) the Programme Reserve ($ 35.9 million), against which allocations totalling $ 3.6 million had been made by 15 March, leaving a balance of $ 32.3 million for the remainder of 1998 (Annex 2 also refers).

8. While income received as at 15 March 1998 under General Programmes ($ 233.7 million) represents a funding level of over 50 per cent, current projections of funding likely to become available during the rest of the year, including the carry-over and secondary income, amount to only an additional $ 133.3 million. This would leave the 1998 General Programmes about $ 73 million underfunded at the end of the year.

9. As regards Special Programmes, projections for 1998 currently amount to $ 660.7 million. The only significant change in requirements since these were submitted in Annex 5 of document EC/48/SC/CRP.4 concerns an upwards adjustment for miscellaneous Trust Funds which was required due to the introduction of new activities not known at that time.

10. It should be noted that three Special Programmes (the repatriations to Angola and Sierra Leone and operations in Sri Lanka) came to the end of 1997 with no funds to carry over into 1998. Five others (the Great Lakes Operation and the repatriations to Rwanda, Mali, Liberia and Afghanistan) registered carry-over of less than 15 per cent of their 1998 budget. As a result of this situation and the slow arrival of contributions in 1998, four Special Programmes (the Great Lakes Operation and the repatriations to Angola, Mali and Liberia) are only able to continue as a result of allocations from the Voluntary Repatriation Fund and the Programme Reserve. Three other programmes (the repatriations to Rwanda, Myanmar and Afghanistan) are in the position of having obligated all of the available funding.

11. Furthermore, current projections of funding likely to be available by the end of 1998 are not encouraging with twelve Special Programmes likely to be funded at less than 90 per cent, of which four (repatriations to Angola, Rwanda, Liberia and Western Sahara) are likely to be less than

75 per cent funded. The situation regarding the repatriations to Angola and Liberia is particularly critical with budgets projected as remaining less than 60 per cent funded by the year end.

12. In summary, against projected total (excluding the Regular Budget) needs in 1998 of $ 1.1 billion (General Programmes $ 440.0 million and Special Programmes $ 660.7 million), on 15 March 1998, $ 425.5 million was available ($ 129.7 million unobligated funds carried over from 1997 and $ 295.8 million in 1998 income). Including projected secondary income, further 1998 income was projected at $ 469.9 million. Currently, actual and projected availability of funds is thus $ 895.4 million or $ 205.3 million short of projected total needs. The High Commissioner therefore urgently appeals to donor Governments for additional contributions so as to permit continuation and timely implementation of the various assistance programmes.

13. A list of 1998 contributions to UNHCR (as at 11 March 1998) is attached hereto as Annex 3.

(Note: Tabular annexes not included in this online version. See your nearest UN Depository Library.)