At least 100 million people were forced to flee their homes during the last 10 years, seeking refuge either within or outside the borders of their country. Forced displacement and statelessness remained high on the international agenda in recent years and continued to generate dramatic headlines in every part of the world.

As we approach two important anniversary years in 2021, the 70^th anniversary of the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and the 60^th anniversary of the 1961 Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness, it is clear these legal instruments have never been more relevant.

Several major crises contributed to the massive displacement over the past decade, and the numbers include people who were displaced multiple times. These crises included but are not limited to the ones listed here:

• the outbreak of the Syrian conflict early in the decade, which continues today
• South Sudan’s displacement crisis, which followed its independence
• the conflict in Ukraine
• the arrival of refugees and migrants in Europe by sea
• the massive flow of stateless refugees from Myanmar to Bangladesh
• the outflow of Venezuelans across Latin America and the Caribbean
• the crisis in Africa’s Sahel region, where conflict and climate change are endangering many communities
• renewed conflict and security concerns in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Somalia
• conflict in the Central African Republic
• internal displacement in Ethiopia
• renewed outbreaks of fighting and violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
• the large humanitarian and displacement crisis in Yemen.

Tens of millions of people were able to return to their places of residence or find other solutions, such as voluntary repatriation or resettlement to third countries, but many more were not and joined the numbers of displaced from previous decades. By the end of 2019, the number of people forcibly displaced due to war, conflict, persecution, human rights violations and events seriously disturbing public order had grown to 79.5 million, the highest number on record according to available data.³ The number of displaced people was nearly double the 2010 number of 41 million (see Figure 1) and an increase from the 2018 number of 70.8 million. The most recent annual increase is due to both new displacement and the inclusion in this year’s report of 3.6 million Venezuelans displaced abroad who face protection risks, irrespective of their status – a category that was not included in the broader global forced displacement total in previous versions of the Global Trends report.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Burkina Faso, the Syrian Arab Republic (Syria), the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (Venezuela) and Yemen represent just a few of the many hotspots in 2019 driving people to seek refuge and safety within their country or flee abroad to seek protection.

The proportion of the world’s population who were displaced continued to rise. One per cent of the world’s population – or 1 in 97 people – is now forcibly displaced. This compares with 1:159 in 2010 and 1:174 in 2005 as the increase in the world’s forcibly displaced population continued to outpace global population growth.⁵

During 2019, an estimated 11.0 million people were newly displaced. While 2.4 million sought protection outside their country,⁶ 8.6 million were newly displaced within the borders of their countries.⁷ Many displaced populations failed to find long-lasting solutions for rebuilding their lives. Only 317,200 refugees were able to return to their country of origin, and only 107,800 were resettled to third countries. Some 5.3 million internally displaced people returned to their place of residence during the year, including 2.1 million in the Democratic Republic of the Congo⁸ and 1.3 million in Ethiopia. In many cases, however, refugees and IDPs returned under adverse circumstances in which the sustainability of returns could not be assured.

At the end of 2019, Syrians continued to be by far the largest forcibly displaced population worldwide (13.2 million, including 6.6 million refugees and more than six million internally displaced people). When considering only international displacement situations, Syrians also topped the list with 6.7 million persons, followed by Venezuelans with 4.5 million. Afghanistan and South Sudan had 3.0 and 2.2 million, respectively (see Figure 2).⁹

Turkey hosted the highest number of people displaced across borders, 3.9 million, most of whom were Syrian refugees (92%). Colombia followed, hosting nearly 1.8 million displaced Venezuelans. Germany hosted the third largest number, almost 1.5 million, with Syrian refugees and asylum-seekers constituting the largest groups (42%). Pakistan and Uganda hosted the 4^th and 5^th largest number, with about 1.4 million each (see Figure 3).

During crises and displacement, children, adolescents and youth are at risk of exploitation and abuse, especially when they are unaccompanied or separated from their families (these children are referred to as UASC). In 2019, UASC lodged around 25,000 new asylum applications. In addition, 153,300 unaccompanied and separated children were reported among the refugee population at the end of 2019. Both figures, however, are significant underestimates due to the limited number of countries reporting data.

Can we predict forced displacement for the next 10 years?

It is very difficult to predict global forced displacement, or its impact on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Such predictions typically rely on historical population trends and anticipate future events, which is sometimes impossible. Based on the displacement trajectory in the 1990s and 2000s, few people could have foreseen the rapidly growing number of displaced people we have seen over the last decade.

From the mid-1990s until around 2010, the number of displaced people remained relatively stable because even though new displacement continued, at the same time many displaced people eventually repatriated, built permanent homes in their host communities or resettled in third countries. In the aftermath of the early Balkan wars and the Rwandan genocide, for example, global displacement figures remained well below 40 million, and as low as 34 million in 1997, according to estimates. Between 2000 and 2009, the numbers of displaced generally ranged between 37 and 42 million.

The last decade, however, brought a major shift. More people sought refuge, but those who had been displaced had fewer options for rebuilding their lives. As wars and conflicts dragged on, fewer refugees and internally displaced people were able to return home, countries accepted a limited number of refugees for resettlement and host countries struggled to integrate displaced populations. For instance, only 3.9 million refugees were able to return to their country of origin between 2010 and 2019. This compares to almost 10 million refugees who returned home during the previous decade and more than 15 million two decades prior (see Figure 4). With more people becoming displaced and fewer being able to return, an increasing number find themselves in protracted and long-lasting displacement situations. The world has clearly shifted from a decade of solutions to a decade of new and protracted displacement.

Climate change and natural disasters can exacerbate threats that force people to flee within their country or across international borders. The interplay between climate, conflict, hunger, poverty and persecution creates increasingly complex emergencies. For example, food insecurity may become a major driver of conflicts and displacement. An international alliance of the United Nations, governmental and non-governmental agencies working to address the root causes of extreme hunger reported that conflict, weather extremes and economic turbulence contributed to several disturbing trends. The group reported that at the end of 2019, 135 million people across 55 countries and territories experienced acute food insecurity.¹⁵ In addition, 75 million children had stunted growth and 17 million suffered from wasting. These findings represented the highest level of acute food insecurity and malnutrition documented since the group’s first report in 2017. Eighty per cent of the world’s displaced populations were residing in these 55 countries or territories.

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates how unexpected events can affect forced displacement predictions. Although the novel coronavirus had just emerged in late 2019, the subsequent pandemic has had, and at the time of this writing continues to have, an unprecedented global social and economic impact, also affecting asylum systems. For instance, the number of asylum applications registered in the European Union in March 2020 dropped by 43 per cent compared to February as asylum systems slowed or came to a halt with countries closing borders or implementing strict border restrictions in response to COVID-19.¹⁶ In other parts of the world, refugee registration, an essential protection activity at the core of refugee statistics,¹⁷ also dropped significantly despite efforts by some countries to resort to remote registration and documentation. As a result, global refugee and asylum statistics may under-represent the true magnitude of the number of people seeking international protection during the pandemic. This could increase the uncertainty for predicting global forced displacement in the future.

Whatever the predictions are for future global displacement, we must reverse the current trend and massively expand pathways for the forcibly displaced to rebuild their lives ­­– whether in their home countries, in third countries or in their host communities. In 2019, UNHCR and its partners launched the Three-Year Strategy on Resettlement and Complementary Pathways.¹⁸ The strategy foresees resettlement of one million refugees and admission of two million refugees through complementary pathways such as family reunification or labour mobility schemes by 2028. For it to succeed, States need to offer more avenues to solutions for refugees in line with the objective of greater shared responsibility set out in the Global Compact on Refugees.