Update on programme and funding projections for 1998 and tentative estimates for the 1999 General Programmes target

EC/48/SC/CRP.26

UPDATE ON PROGRAMME AND FUNDING PROJECTIONS FOR 1998 AND TENTATIVE ESTIMATES FOR THE 1999 GENERAL PROGRAMMES TARGET

I. INTRODUCTION

1. An Update of UNHCR Programme and Funding Projections for 1998 was presented to the eleventh meeting of the Standing Committee on 28 and 29 April 1998 (EC/48/SC/CRP.11). The present document provides further updated information on these projections (Parts II to IV) and a tentative estimate for the 1999 General Programmes target (Part V).

2. Annex 1 to this document provides, in tabular form, an update as of 15 May 1998 of total projected needs for activities programmed in 1998, and a forecast of expected income for the year, taking into account, inter alia, unobligated funds brought forward from 1997.

II. 1998 GENERAL PROGRAMMES

3. It will be recalled that the Executive Committee, at its forty-eighth session in October 1997, approved the 1998 General Programmes target of $ 440.0 million. This target includes:

(a) The Emergency Fund ($ 25 million), against which allocations totalling $ 4.7 million had been made by 15 May 1998, leaving an unallocated balance of $ 20.3 million (Annex 2 refers);

(b) The Voluntary Repatriation Fund ($ 20 million), against which allocations totalling $ 16.5 million had been made by 15 May 1998, leaving an unallocated balance of $ 3.5 million (Annex 2 also refers). Most of these allocations were made to fund ongoing repatriation programmes for which little or no carry-over was available at the beginning of 1998, and pending receipt of contributions subsequent to the launching of appeals, and;

(c) The Programme Reserve ($ 35.9 million), against which allocations totalling $ 8.2 million had been made by 15 May 1998, leaving a balance of $ 27.7 million for the remainder of 1998 (Annex 2 also refers).

4. While income received as at 15 May 1998 under General Programmes ($ 259.2 million) represents a funding level of 59 per cent, current projections of funding likely to become available during the rest of the year, including the carry-over and projected secondary income, amount to only an additional $ 107.8 million. This would leave the 1998 General Programmes about $ 73.0 million underfunded at the end of the year.

III.1998 SPECIAL PROGRAMMES

5. As regards Special Programmes, projections for 1998 currently amount to $ 664.2 million. The only major changes in requirements since these were submitted in Annex 1 of document EC/48/SC/CRP.11 concerns upward adjustments for the Liberia and Guatemala repatriation programmes ($ 1.5 million each).

6. As noted in document EC/48/SC/CRP.11, three Special Programmes (the repatriations to Angola and Sierra Leone and operations in Sri Lanka) came to the end of 1997 with no funds to carry over into 1998. Five others (the Great Lakes Operation and the repatriations to Rwanda, Mali, Liberia and Afghanistan) registered carry-over of less than 15 per cent of their 1998 budget. As a result of this situation and the slow arrival of contributions in 1998, most of these Special Programmes are only able to continue as a result of allocations from the Voluntary Repatriation Fund and the Programme Reserve. Four programmes (the repatriations to Rwanda, Myanmar, Liberia and Afghanistan) are in the position of having obligated all of the available funding.

7. Furthermore, current projections of funding likely to be available by the end of 1998 are not encouraging, in particular as regards the repatriations to Angola, Liberia and Rwanda.

IV. SUMMARY OF OVERALL PROGRAMME AND FUNDING PROJECTIONS FOR 1998

8. In summary, against projected total (excluding the Regular Budget) needs in 1998 of $ 1.1 billion (General Programmes $ 440.0 million and Special Programmes $ 664.2 million), on 15 May 1998, $ 522.3 million was available ($ 129.7 million unobligated funds carried over from 1997 and $ 392.6 million in 1998 income). Including projected secondary income, further 1998 income was projected at $ 378.6 million. Currently, actual and projected availability of funds is thus $ 900.9 million or $ 203.3 million short of projected total needs. The High Commissioner therefore urgently appeals to donor Governments for additional contributions so as to permit continuation and timely implementation of the various assistance programmes.

9. A list of 1998 contributions to UNHCR (as at 18 May 1998) is attached hereto as Annex 3.

V. TENTATIVE ESTIMATES FOR 1999 GENERAL PROGRAMMES

10. The tentative 1999 General Programmes target has been determined by the Operations Review Board at a level of some $ 413.5 million, including $ 25 million for the Emergency Fund, $ 20 million for the Voluntary Repatriation Fund and $ 33.5 million for the Programme Reserve (ten per cent of programmed activities). Further information will be presented to the thirteenth meeting of the Standing Committee and to the forty-ninth session of the Executive Committee in September and October 1998 respectively.

11. UNHCR would have wished to be able to at least maintain if not increase the level of General Programmes in 1999, within the framework of the Decision on Budget Structure and Governance taken by the Executive Committee at its forty-sixth session (A/AC.96/860, para. 22). However, in view of the downward trend in contributions, secondary income and carry-overs, projected available income for 1999 will require that the General Programmes target be established at a level which appears realistic.

DRAFT DECISION ON PROGRAMME AND FUNDING PROJECTIONS

The Standing Committee,

Recalling the decision of the forty-eighth session of the Executive Committee on programme, funding and administrative matters,

OP1 Notes that the overall revised needs for 1998 (excluding the Regular Budget) are currently estimated at some $ 1.1 billion, of which projected needs for General Programmes remain at $ 440 million, as approved by the Executive Committee at its forty-eighth session, and those for Special Programmes are $ 664.2 million;

OP2 Notes also the tentative budget estimates of $ 413.5 million for 1999 General Programmes as set out in document EC/48/SC/CRP.26, which includes a Programme Reserve of ten per cent of programmed activities;

OP3 Notes the current level of contributions to UNHCR's programmes and notes the appeal of the High Commissioner to donor Governments for further announcements of contributions so as to permit continuation and timely implementation of the various assistance programmes.

(Note: Tabular Annexes I-III not included in this online version. See your nearest UN Depository Library.)